Why Home Prices are still Evevated Despite a rise in Rates.

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Seaport Real Estate Services REB.0790195

Market Update and Current Trends

Local vs. National Picture: While specific market conditions vary by town, national metrics like interest rates play a key role.


Interest Rates and Buying Power: Back in 2021, with interest rates at 2.65%, a household with an income of $120,000 had a purchasing power of around $600,000. Today, with rates at 7.25%, that buying power has shrunk to $355,000, even though monthly payments remain similar. A 1% rise in rates means an 11% decrease in buying power. Historically, rate increases are followed by property value decreases after about six months.


Low Inventory: A prevalent belief is that property values remain high due to low inventory. People are staying in there  homes unless driven by factors like death, divorce, and life changes. This has led to fewer properties available, with cash buyers often dominating the market. Moreover, sellers are hesitant as selling a high-priced home but not being able to afford a new one doesn't make sense.


Bank Lending Ratios: To keep the economy fluid, banks have started adjusting their lending ratios. Initially, a consumer's monthly house payment was supposed to be below 35% of their gross monthly income. But as buying power decreased, banks have adjusted these ratios, pushing some consumers to allocate up to 51% of their income towards housing. This has increased buying power back to prior levels, but it has also increased financial strain, making many homeowners "house poor".


Consumer Debt: Many homeowners, unwilling to downgrade their lifestyle, resort to credit cards, leading to skyrocketing credit card debt. In Connecticut, the average individual holds about $9.4k in credit card debt, which is concerning.


The Advantage of Information: At Seaport, our strength lies in our data-driven approach, helping clients make informed decisions, rather than basing choices on emotions. It's crucial in these volatile times to have a trusted source of information.

Posted by

TIM BRAY - B.S. Real Estate & Urban Economics

Real Estate Advisor, Broker

c: 860.912.7137 | tbray@seaportre.com 

12 Roosevelt Ave, Mystic, CT

Seaport Real Estate Services

Group Qualifications to be your Guide: B.S. Real Estate & Urban Economics (UConn) MBA, Former Appraiser, Graphic Designer, Social Media Expert, Top 1% of Agents, Commercial & Investment Certified, Auctions, Licensed in CT, MA and RI

Comments (4)

Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

Good Morning Tim Bray 

Certainly, the banks easing their lending practices have a major effect on pricing. That and inventory (supply and demand) levels. 

Aug 18, 2023 07:37 AM
Tim Bray

Love the numbers as they paint a very clear picture. Thank you for your comment. 

Aug 18, 2023 07:52 AM
Ed (Edward) Silva, 203-206-0754
Mapleridge Realty, CT 203-206-0754 - Waterbury, CT
Central CT Real Estate Broker Serving all equally

The banks easing their qualifications is key as long as they don't fall back to the crap some pulled to make all crash.

Aug 18, 2023 07:56 AM
Tim Bray

Agreed. Discretionary income is the lubricant in the economy and if owners are house poor, then it all comes screeching to a halt. 

Aug 19, 2023 02:38 AM
George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

Tim Bray interest rates play a major role in how expensive a house a Buyer can qualify for, but in my opinion interest rates have very little to do with the desire to purchase a home.  In the early 80's interest rates were more than twice as high as they are today.  Rates were between 15% to 19% and that did not keep Buyers from purchasing homes.  To top it off low inventory equals higher price, and right now inventory is super low throughout most of the country. 

Aug 18, 2023 08:29 AM
Bill Salvatore - East Valley
Arizona Elite Properties - Chandler, AZ
Realtor - 602-999-0952 / em: golfArizona@cox.net

Hi,

Enjoyed your blog page, and I added you as a friend. I would love the follow back. read your post and welcome to the Rain! We look for more from you later on.  Thanks Bill

Aug 18, 2023 12:10 PM